ProbabilitySports®

Description of Contests

Pick the Probabilities

ProbabilitySports® contests are new, skillful sports contests where you don't simply try to guess the winners in the games. Instead you estimate, for each game, the probability that each team will win based on how strong you believe each team to be. For example, say you're playing ProbabilityFootball®, and Atlanta is playing at Dallas this week. If you feel that Dallas has a 60% chance of winning the game, you would pick Dallas 60%, Atlanta 40%. If a friend of yours, Susan, feels more confident about Dallas (perhaps she knows of a key Atlanta injury), she might pick Dallas 70%, Atlanta 30%.

Unique Scoring Function

If Dallas wins the game, you'll gain points, but Susan will gain more because her pick was more confident. However, if Atlanta wins, you'll lose points, and Susan will lose more. Any player picking 50% for each team will always score 0 points, regardless of the outcome of the game. The unique ProbabilitySports® scoring function ensures that the players most accurately estimating the probabilities (strengths of the teams) in each game will score the most points on average.

Ignore the Spread

In ProbabilitySports® contests, you never need to pick against "the spread". The spread is an artificial number of points added to the underdog's score in order to make the game an even match between the two teams. But the teams playing the game don't care about the spread. Obviously, a losing team will not be happy just because they beat the spread. Similarly, whether you gain or lose points in the contest is dependent only upon whether the team you've picked as favorite wins or loses, not the margin of victory.

Accumulate Your Score and Win Prizes

Throughout the season, each player gains or loses points for each game. Prizes are awarded for players having the highest cumulative scores for each week, each month, and for the entire season.

SCORING FUNCTION
Favorite % Win Tie Loss Underdog %
50% 0.00 0.00 0.00 50%
51% +3.96 -0.04 -4.04 49%
52% +7.84 -0.16 -8.16 48%
53% +11.64 -0.36 -12.36 47%
54% +15.36 -0.64 -16.64 46%
55% +19.00 -1.00 -21.00 45%
56% +22.56 -1.44 -25.44 44%
57% +26.04 -1.96 -29.96 43%
58% +29.44 -2.56 -34.56 42%
59% +32.76 -3.24 -39.24 41%
60% +36.00 -4.00 -44.00 40%
61% +39.16 -4.84 -48.84 39%
62% +42.24 -5.76 -53.76 38%
63% +45.24 -6.76 -58.76 37%
64% +48.16 -7.84 -63.84 36%
65% +51.00 -9.00 -69.00 35%
66% +53.76 -10.24 -74.24 34%
67% +56.44 -11.56 -79.56 33%
68% +59.04 -12.96 -84.96 32%
69% +61.56 -14.44 -90.44 31%
70% +64.00 -16.00 -96.00 30%
71% +66.36 -17.64 -101.64 29%
72% +68.64 -19.36 -107.36 28%
73% +70.84 -21.16 -113.16 27%
74% +72.96 -23.04 -119.04 26%
75% +75.00 -25.00 -125.00 25%
Favorite % Win Tie Loss Underdog %
75% +75.00 -25.00 -125.00 25%
76% +76.96 -27.04 -131.04 24%
77% +78.84 -29.16 -137.16 23%
78% +80.64 -31.36 -143.36 22%
79% +82.36 -33.64 -149.64 21%
80% +84.00 -36.00 -156.00 20%
81% +85.56 -38.44 -162.44 19%
82% +87.04 -40.96 -168.96 18%
83% +88.44 -43.56 -175.56 17%
84% +89.76 -46.24 -182.24 16%
85% +91.00 -49.00 -189.00 15%
86% +92.16 -51.84 -195.84 14%
87% +93.24 -54.76 -202.76 13%
88% +94.24 -57.76 -209.76 12%
89% +95.16 -60.84 -216.84 11%
90% +96.00 -64.00 -224.00 10%
91% +96.76 -67.24 -231.24 9%
92% +97.44 -70.56 -238.56 8%
93% +98.04 -73.96 -245.96 7%
94% +98.56 -77.44 -253.44 6%
95% +99.00 -81.00 -261.00 5%
96% +99.36 -84.64 -268.64 4%
97% +99.64 -88.36 -276.36 3%
98% +99.84 -92.16 -284.16 2%
99% +99.96 -96.04 -292.04 1%
100% +100.00 -100.00 -300.00 0%

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